Vincent Black

Why is Doug Ford calling a provincial election?

Ontario Conservative Leader Doug Ford speaks during his campaign launch next to the Ambassador Bridge in Windsor, Ont., Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2025. PHOTO BY DAX MELMER /THE CANADIAN PRESS

Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s decision to call a provincial election has raised eyebrows and sparked debate across the province. I will try to delve into the motivations behind the early election, its potential pros and cons, and the political landscape that may have influenced Ford’s timing.

Traditionally, provincial elections in Ontario occur every four years, but Ford’s call for an early election has led to speculation regarding his motivations. Observers have pointed to several factors, including the ongoing RCMP investigation into alleged corruption and scandals within his administration. Critics argue that Ford might be attempting to solidify his power before any damaging revelations can surface.

Additionally, Ford’s government has been under scrutiny for its handling of various issues, including COVID-19 pandemic, healthcare funding, and controversial education reforms, and the Greenbelt fiasco. An early election could serve as a strategy to reset public perception and rally support while the opposition remains fragmented. Let me share with you a few of the pro’s of calling an early election…. seizing the momentum. Ford may believe that his party has the upper hand in the current political climate. With the opposition struggling to present a united front, an early election could allow the Progressive Conservatives to capitalize on this division.

Controlling of the narrative by Ford is so important….by calling for an election now, Ford can frame the discussion around his government’s achievements and policies, potentially diverting attention from ongoing scandals or investigations. 

Voter fatigue…. with many voters possibly feeling fatigued from the prolonged nature of elections coming up with a federal election and a leadership convention by the Liberals, not to mention a provincial call for February 27….in the heart of a cold winter. Ford might sense an opportunity to galvanize support by presenting himself as a stable leader in uncertain times. Doug Ford is absolutely taking advantage of political timing and using the Trump tariffs as a bonus excuse. The cons for this election on February 27 is the possible public backlash….if the public perceives the election as a cynical move to dodge accountability, it could backfire, leading to decreased support for Ford and his party. 

Diverting attention from issues such as an RCMP investigation and its outcome. An election campaign could shift focus away from pressing issues such as healthcare and education, which may be detrimental to voters who prioritize these topics. 

The biggest problem is thousands of people do not have a doctor in this province and it is getting bigger. We have seen line-ups by folks trying to see a doctor in many of these walk-in clinics. This is the real problem that Ontario is facing, and it is getting worse. Potential for increased scrutiny….an early election may open Ford’s administration to greater scrutiny, especially regarding the allegations tied to the RCMP investigation, which could undermine his position further.

Investigations and tariffs…. are they factors? The timing of the election raises questions about the impact of the RCMP investigation. Some analysts suggest that Ford could be looking to solidify his position before any findings are made public. However, Ford’s office has publicly dismissed the notion that the investigation is a driving factor behind the election call.

Additionally, critics have speculated whether Ford is using U.S. tariffs, particularly those instituted under Trump, as a scapegoat for economic challenges in Ontario. By framing external economic pressure as a reason for the province’s struggles, Ford might be attempting to deflect blame from his administration’s policies.

Taking advantage of the political process…. ultimately, it appears that Ford is strategically taking advantage of the political process to reinforce his leadership. By calling an early election, he may be seeking to consolidate power and secure a mandate before potential challenges arise from ongoing investigations or economic issues. Whether this move will resonate with voters remains to be seen, but it has undoubtedly ignited a significant conversation about accountability, governance, and the future of Ontario’s political landscape.

Weak opposition and catching the Liberals off guard is another major reason to call the election…as of writing this article, the Liberals are short 60 candidates to find to have the Liberals have a full slate. Ford sees this as an opportune moment to challenge them while they are not fully prepared.

In the end…. Doug Ford’s call for an early election is a pivotal moment for Ontario politics. It reflects both strategic considerations and the complexities of current governance challenges. As the election of February 27 approaches, the effectiveness of Ford’s messaging and his ability to navigate potential pitfalls will be crucial in determining the outcome. Voter’s response will ultimately reveal whether this early election was a savvy political manoeuvrer or a miscalculation.

Vincent Black/MS

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