Upcoming municipal election… who’s in and who’s out

As Toronto gears up for its next municipal election, residents, community groups, and local media are taking stock of the contenders, the key issues shaping the race, and what each candidate brings to the table. I will try to give you a snapshot of the current landscape, including references to the existing mayor, Olivia Chow, potential contenders, and the broader pool of candidates that may emerge before Election Day. 

Olivia Chow has a long history in Toronto politics, including service on the municipal council and experience in federal politics. Her leadership style tends to emphasize accessibility, social equity, affordable housing, transit improvements, and community-based solutions. Her primary goals in my estimation are and have been expanding affordable housing and addressing homelessness. Transit reliability and modernization, including TIC service improvements. She has tried to take this fiscal responsibility with a focus on efficient city services to this point. Her support for LGBTQ plus and immigrant communities, inclusive policies, and equity initiatives have been her calling cards.

Name recognition in any election is important and in municipal races it has been my experience that name recognition is at the top of the list. Her biggest areas to tackle will be in balancing budgets in a high-cost city, addressing criticism over service delivery, and differentiating from challengers on specific policy details. Toronto has always been a progressive city and candidates like the present mayor will benefit from the make-up of the city. The one advantage that Olivia Chow has with the upcoming election is that the turn out for municipal elections is always low and I do not see any change in this upcoming election. The other big advantage that the current mayor has is that the progress left has a much better-oiled political machine and they all come out to vote.

This week Brad Bradford launches his campaign officially, even though he must wait till May 1/ 2026 before he can officially register. I must say that he has over the past two years been talking about making the move and I must say that I has to give him credit for taking the plunge. Unlike John Tory who likes o hear his name being dropped in many conversations without really making any commitments. I hope that Mr. Bradford goes through with his decision without being a political stunt to get publicity. I says this is because in a three-way race with Tory, Bradford and Chow, she wins because the other two will split the vote.  

John Tory, former mayor of Toronto, has been a prominent voice in municipal politics. Since 2024, speculation about a potential bid in the 2026 municipal election centers on questions of leadership, experience, and public familiarity. Proponents argue Tory’s record in prior fiscal prudence, infrastructure focus, and a recognizable name could help mobilize voters seeking stability amid ongoing urban challenges like transit, housing, and downtown growth. A comeback bid might be framed as a continuation of pragmatic, center-right governance that emphasizes public safety, business confidence, and orderly develop  

Just a quick observation on Brad Bradford and his continuous pursuit of becoming mayor. It’s refreshing representing a more youthful approach as opposed to Tory and Chow who had been around for ever. Bradford is addressing serious concerns in this city and if he stays in the race he should be given a look and a consideration.  

The interesting political bullet in this entire upcoming race is Doug Ford, better known as the BOSS and where will he lean his support and why. Once again, my insider information is that Doug Ford has no issues to see Olivia Chow re-elected as mayor of Toronto. In fact, I believe that Ford would prefer to have Olivia Chow stay on as mayor because thus far he has been able to work with Chow and drive his agenda forward. Ontario place is probably the best example and these two have had more positive communication and wins for their sides then many other politicians from the past. The relationship between Tory and Ford has been tested over the year’s and there is no love lost between the two. The other interesting point to make is that John Tory’s son is seeking a Liberal nomination in Scarborough which has split the strong family conservative connections with Tory junior making the move to cross over which deep down does not sit well with Ford.  

Social media will play an important part in this election with the likes of Integrity TO on the right and progress Toronto on the left that are platforms that can mobilize many folks to get out to vote and set narratives. There are a few other platforms emerging and the one to watch is Works Toronto and interesting platform and one backed by the left and the union community.  

Toronto’s municipal election, coming up on October 26, 2026, is one of the most important elections that will shape the city’s approach to housing, transit, safety, and everyday quality of life for years to come. With Olivia Chow as the established incumbent, the race will hinge on how challengers articulate fresh ideas, demonstrate governance competence, and address the needs of diverse communities across the city. As the field evolves, residents are encouraged to engage actively, scrutinize platforms, and participate in the democratic process to influence Toronto’s trajectory.  

My final prediction is that John Tory will not run, and Olivia Chow will be re-elected. Olivia Chow’s political machine will back Ana Bailão in four years, and she will be elected mayor of Toronto.

Vincent Black/MS