Is Mark Carney getting ready for a spring election?

This week Prime Minister Mark Carney met with Premier Doug Ford and the two appeared to have made up plus both were on the same page regarding China, the automotive sector, and the tariff struggles against Trump. The two had lunch at a pizza joint in Etobicoke. Was this a photo op for a possible spring election or gearing up for a possible couple of by-elections that could get the liberals closer to a majority?

In my estimation this campaign style meeting started on January 20, 2026, when PM Carney delivered a notabe speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos. In a speech titled “Principled and Pragmatic: Canada’s Path”, he declared that the long-standing U.S.-led rules-based international order is breaking down and urged middle powers to act in concert to shape the new world rather than simply reacting to it.

Carney’s argument was stark, rather than being in a smooth transition, the global order has experienced a real rupture-marked by great power rivalry, economic coercion, and the weaponization of trade, finance, and supply chains. His signature line-“middle powers must act together, because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu” – captured the urgency of his message. The speech also touched on key geographical flashpoints, such as support for Greenland’s sovereignty alongside Denmark and opposition to tariffs imposed by the U.S. – moves that underscored the shifting dynamics among major allies. Despite careful wording, Carney’s critique implicitly targeted U.S. policy under President Donald Trump, triggering sharp remarks from Trump suggesting “Canada lives because of the United States,” which Carney later rebutted.

Another campaign give away this week from the Carney Liberals is to provide Canadians tax relief related to the GST/HST system, but it’s not a permanent across-the-board HST cut for everyone. However, when announced the messaging was that most Canadians would benefit from a tax break. PM Mark Carney announced a significant increase to the GST tax credit for low modest-income Canadians. Under the new plan the credit will be increased by 25% for five years starting in July 2026. There will also be a one-time top-up of about 50% this year. This means bigger payments to eligible families and individuals to help offset high grocery costs and everyday expenses.
Mark Carney’s Liberal government is a minority in the House of Commons after winning the April 28, 2025, federal election. The Liberals hold fewer than half the seats, meaning another election could be triggered before the next fixed date for an election which legally must happen by October 2026. PM Carney has publicly said he is not planning a snap election this spring, but my sources tell me that Liberals should be ready for a possible spring election and to start gearing up for one.

The PM’s staff and some MPs are lobbying behind the scenes to try and get a couple of MPs from the conservatives and the NDP to cross the floor as a few did just before Christmas. This strategic move if successful would avoid a very costly federal election and keep the Liberals in power for the next four years. The latest rumors are that three to four conservatives are very dissatisfied with Pierre Poilievre and are considering a move. This process will ramp up over the coming days.

The last thing that l will bring to your attention is the friendship between Ford and Carney. Do not be fooled by thinking that because they are from different parties, that their goals are different. Ford sees himself as a federal leader some day and that will be to replace Pierre Poilievre probably in the next federal cycle. You may say its far-fetched…. l say it’s just around the corner as my sources tell me that Ford is taking French lessons and is planning for his next political move which may be federal politics.

Stay tuned for a Federal Election sometime end of March….

Vincent Black