Baseball: With the Jays rolling, how do they approach the trade deadline?

One thing is certain as Major League Baseball approaches the July trade deadline: a flurry of deals is coming. Over the next month, dozens of players will change teams as contenders attempt to bolster their rosters for a playoff push. Less certain, however, is who will be traded—and at what cost. With several teams still undecided on whether they’ll buy or sell, and each market developing its own rhythm, there’s plenty of uncertainty surrounding this year’s deadline.

That leaves buyers like the Toronto Blue Jays needing to stay nimble. With a winning record, Toronto is firmly in the playoff hunt, and their front office will be looking to address key needs—namely, starting pitching, bullpen depth, and right-handed bats. While the Blue Jays’ farm system has improved over the past year, general manager Ross Atkins must strike a balance between strengthening the current roster and protecting future assets. Prospects still matter—and squandering them can set an organization back.

To better understand what the Blue Jays might face, it’s worth examining last year’s trade deadline. While 2024’s deals can’t be copy-pasted to 2025, the 68 trades completed last July offer valuable insight into the dynamics of deadline pricing.

Most trades happen late.

As is often the case in baseball, deadlines fuel urgency. Of the 68 trades made last July, 60 happened in the final week before the deadline. Expect a similar pattern this year, especially for Toronto. The club will want clarity on the health status of players like Anthony Santander, Yimi García, Max Scherzer, and Alek Manoah before finalizing major decisions.

High-velocity relievers with swing-and-miss stuff are premium assets.

Contending teams covet flamethrowing relievers come playoff time. Last year, the Padres gave up four ranked prospects for Tanner Scott. Yimi García required two prospects, including Seattle’s No. 10, and Carlos Estévez fetched a pair as well. All three pitchers had fastballs clocking 96.8 m.p.h. or more and strong strikeout rates, making them ideal for the pressure-packed innings of October baseball.

Toronto is familiar with this demand, having acquired Jordan Hicks last summer for two pitching prospects. If they go after a similar arm in 2025, the cost will likely be steep again. It’s simply the going rate for elite bullpen help.

Relievers with team control aren’t much more expensive.

While it makes sense that controllable relievers would command more, the difference in cost between rentals and multi-year arms wasn’t as wide as expected. Teams like Tampa Bay, Washington, and Oakland traded high-velo relievers such as Jason Adam, Lucas Erceg, and Gregory Soto for packages that weren’t drastically bigger than those for rentals. The volatility of the reliever role plays a part here—extra control is valuable, but not a guarantee of future performance.

If the Blue Jays are giving up two or three quality prospects anyway, they’d be wise to pursue relievers under team control for 2026 and beyond.

Velocity isn’t everything.

Relievers like Nate Pearson and Ryne Stanek remind us that radar gun readings don’t guarantee value. Command issues and a lack of deception hurt their marketability, while someone like Jason Adam—whose delivery makes the ball harder to pick up—offers more upside despite similar velocity. The Blue Jays will need to weigh intangible traits like deception as they assess bullpen targets.

Back-end starters are affordable.

Last year, solid-but-unspectacular starters such as Aaron Civale, Michael Lorenzen, and Martín Pérez were traded for single prospects, none of whom ranked higher than No. 19 in their organizations. While Trevor Rogers yielded a better return, he was the exception.

For the Jays, this means they can likely acquire back-end rotation help—say, an Andrew Heaney or Charlie Morton type—without surrendering top talent.

Front-line starters come at a premium.

Acquiring a pitcher capable of starting a playoff game will cost more—often multiple well-regarded prospects. Yusei Kikuchi, Jack Flaherty, and Zach Eflin all required significant returns, reflecting the intense demand from playoff hopefuls.

Should the Blue Jays target someone like Merrill Kelly, expect a three-player package featuring at least one notable headliner. And if a true ace like Jacob deGrom becomes available, the price will soar even higher. These players don’t move often—and when they do, the bidding is fierce.

Ultimately, while the Blue Jays have reason to be aggressive, the market will dictate their options. Other teams’ preferences may shape who gets dealt and where. As always, flexibility, preparation, and timing will be key to pulling off the right moves.

RS/MS