Baseball: Do the Jays have room for Bo Bichette?

With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. now locked in as a Blue Jay long term, the spotlight has shifted to shortstop Bo Bichette.

General manager Ross Atkins recently stated it’s the team’s “vision” for Guerrero and Bichette to continue playing together. As the Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm noted, next year’s free-agent class may not be particularly strong — raising the urgency to consider an extension.

But finding the right value and contract length for Bichette won’t be easy.

How much is Bichette worth?

One way teams assess player value is through wins above replacement (WAR), which estimates how many wins a player adds compared to a replacement-level player. FanGraphs suggests each WAR is worth about $8.5 million USD. A player producing 4.0 WAR annually could be valued at roughly $34 million per season.

While these numbers don’t always align perfectly — Aaron Judge has averaged 8.0 WAR since 2021 and earns $40 million a year — they help form a baseline, especially at premium positions like shortstop.

Bichette has typically hovered in the 4-5 WAR range when healthy. He’s had some ups and downs defensively but has three strong offensive seasons under his belt and could remain a key contributor.

Beyond advanced metrics, Toronto will also look at recent market trends.

What are other shortstops getting paid?

Several star shortstops have landed massive long-term contracts in recent years:

• Francisco Lindor (Mets)
  10 years, $341M
• Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres)
  14 years, $340M
• Corey Seager (Rangers)
  10 years, $325M
• Trea Turner (Phillies)
  11 years, $300M
• Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals)
  11 years, $288.7M plus options
• If Bichette isn’t quite in that tier, other comparisons might include:
• Willy Adames (Giants)
  7 years, $182M
• Trevor Story (Red Sox)
  6 years, $140M
• Javier Báez (Tigers)
  6 years, $140M
• Xander Bogaerts (Padres)
  11 years, $280M (signed as a shortstop, now a second baseman)

Who compares best to Bichette?

Of the above, Tatis is a possible comp, though he was extended with less MLB experience and has since moved off shortstop. Bichette’s offensive profile is closer to that of Turner and Adames during their age-26 seasons. However, both Turner and Adames had significantly more plate appearances by the time they signed — Turner with over 1,000 more, Adames with nearly 900 more.

How does this fit into the Jays’ payroll picture?

With Guerrero extended (14 years, $500M) and Alejandro Kirk signed through 2029 (5 years, $58M), the Jays have limited long-term commitments beyond 2026, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

George Springer, Kevin Gausman, and Yimi García are set to hit free agency after 2025, while Chris Bassitt, Chad Green, and Max Scherzer will be off the books after this season.

Several other players are signed longer-term:

• Jeff Hoffman
  ($33M through 2027)
• Andrés Giménez
  ($106.5M through 2029, club option for 2030)
• José Berríos
  ($131M through 2028, opt-out after 2026)
• Anthony Santander
  ($92.5M through 2029, option for 2030)

Some deals get pricier over time (Berríos, Giménez), while others — like Santander’s and Guerrero’s — gradually decrease.

If the Jays don’t re-sign veterans like Springer or Bassitt, they could open up considerable financial flexibility after 2026.

Though Bichette is off to a relatively quiet start this year (.314 average, no home runs, 10 RBIs), speculation around his future is only going to heat up as the season unfolds.

Reno Silva/MS