Poll Tracker
The Conservatives have led in the polls since February, moving ahead of the Liberals as their support dropped in the wake of the SNC-Lavalin affair. The Conservatives would likely win the most seats if an election were held today, but whether it would be a majority is a toss-up. The New Democrats trail in third, while the Greens have hit new polling highs since the last election. The Bloc Québécois is in a good position to win more than the 12 seats needed to be a recognized party in the House of Commons.
The Conservatives are ahead in every region of the country west of Quebec. The Liberals have lost support but still hold the lead in that province, while Ontario and Atlantic Canada remain close races between the Liberals and Conservatives. The New Democrats are on track to lose most or all of their seats in Quebec, while the Greens are holding double-digits in support in Atlantic Canada and B.C.
DEFINITION OF TERMS
Poll shows the pollster that conducted the survey and the media outlet (if applicable) that either commissioned the poll or first reported on it. When available, a link to the pollster’s report is provided.
Weight refers to the weight (out of 100) the poll carries in the aggregation. Weight is determined by the date of the survey, the sample size and the track record of the polling firm.
Dates refers to the field date range of the survey.
Sample refers to the number of total respondents interviewed, including undecideds.
Method refers to the mode of contact of the polls:
- TEL: Polls conducted via the telephone with live operators conducting the interviews with randomly-dialed respondents.
- IVR: Polls conducted via interactive voice response, in which recorded questions are played for randomly-dialled respondents and answers are given via the telephone keypad.
- NET: Polls conducted via the Internet. In most cases, respondents come from a panel of Canadians recruited in various ways, including over the telephone.
- T/N: Hybrid poll combining online and telephone methodologies.
Margin of Error (MOE) lists the margin of error (in percentage points) of a corresponding probabilistic sample equal to the size of the poll’s sample size.
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