Federal health officials releasing projections on COVID-19 curve

Federal health officials are releasing modelling today on how the COVID-19 crisis could unfold in Canada.

A briefing is underway with Canada’s chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam, deputy chief public health officer Dr. Howard Njoo and deputy health minister Stephen Lucas.

The analysis of how many people could become infected, get sick or die from the virus comes just before the long holiday weekend.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has repeatedly told Canadians that how fast and far the virus spreads will depend largely on how stringently Canadians follow public health advice, including physical distancing, handwashing and staying home whenever possible.

Several provinces have already released projections. Ontario estimates the number of deaths in the province could reach between 3,000 and 15,000 people over the course of the pandemic, which could last up to two years.

Tam has cautioned that models that try to predict how many people could become infected and die from the coronavirus are not “crystal balls,” and that it’s important to focus on data on what is happening in real time.

How projections actually play out depends largely on actions taken by individuals and governments, she said.

CBC