Global Musical Chairs…

When you see the images on television of folks trying to get out of Ukraine and heading off to neighboring countries the sight breaks your heart. Unless you are unhuman you want to do something to help these families. Similar images have been seen before in history, but what is happening today is something that is not fathomable and should not happen. What’s really behind it?

At least 2 million people have fled Ukraine to neighboring countries since Russia forces invaded the eastern European country. The majority of refugees have escaped to Poland, Hungary, Moldova, Romania and Slovakia. However, many other unidentified Ukrainians continue to flee across Europe. Is this a KGB tactic to get people out of this country and weaken their moral and spirit when it comes to breaking down Ukraine with the ultimate goal to take back this country as Putin is saying that it belongs to the great country of Russia?

Putin launched the invasion despite impressive transatlantic solidarity and his full awareness that the West would respond by imposing severe economic sanctions and substantially reinforcing the eastern flank. This move by Putin could be a direct message to the rest of the world that this man will not stop here but may continue further. In my humble opinion, the images that you see of people being displaced and moving around only to survive, is a propaganda message that Putin is sending to the rest of the world.

Do the threats go beyond Ukraine?

The invasion will have geopolitical effects well beyond Ukraine. Depending upon how far into western Ukraine Russian forces go, a sizeable number of Ukrainians may try to flee the country across its borders. This first shot across the bow is the first step in flushing out who wants out and he will have the rest of Ukraine under his puppet control and strategically move further into the other countries next. Showing people being forced out of their homes and being displaced and on the move in fear is what the Russians want to accomplish in this new war.

Putin has also said he’s just not pulling Ukraine back into the Russian fold but also getting NATO to withdraw forces from its new member countries in Central Europe. In this case NATO members need to take prudent and expeditious steps to reinforce the alliance’s eastern flank by dispatching more air, land, and naval assets to the region. They should also prepare the NATO response force to react quickly to Russian continued threats.

Many of the people that you see being displaced into other countries is part of a propaganda move by Russia as they create fear and chaos. This is a Machiavelli move by Putin who has created an image that he and China have cut a deal to take on the rest of the world with pure bully might and has shown in the past few weeks that he will not back down. Putin and China know that by forcing people to move around from country to country, it puts a financial as well as a moral strain on these countries with a possible backlash from the countries that are accepting these refugees.

Putting economic and social pressures on countries accepting these refugees has its consequences and Putin and China have factored these possible outcomes. Russia and China in a strategical move have put initial strains on the globe with their control and domination of oil and gas as well microchips from China putting pressure on the rest of the world.

Overall, the West’s best containment strategy is to maintain solidarity. Putin likely acted when he did because he thought he could exploit divisions among Western democracies. The United States is coping with polarization, Britain has left the EU, Germany has a new untested chancellor, and illiberal populism has reared its head on both sides of the Atlantic – Putin likely thought he could take advantage of these conditions to crack the West. But has he underestimated the rest of the world sticking together to fight against Russia and China? Also, the fact the United States has a very weak president in office has not helped the cause.

Only time will tell if Putin has miscalculated his moves thus far as all transatlantic partners have and need to stand shoulder to shoulder in recent days, and that unity will only grow stronger. Like-minded countries around the world, democracies and nondemocracies both, should link arms in the face of Russian aggression.

This same of global musical chairs of moving people around and forcing people to move out of their country for fear that they will be killed is a political KGB move that is done to implement fear into the rest of the world and tell you that Russia and to a lesser extent China is on our heels and we should be on guard. I have said this before that the big giant in the room is not Russia, but in fact it is China. We are just seeing the beginning of a global conflict where they try to displace the world with a pandemic, and now that it seems under control, the next step is war followed by famine and in our case…. a lack of supply of oil in our pipelines.

Putin and China have their foot on the gas pedal, and they will not let off until they win, and a win is a total reset to the global economy with a one world power.
The stakes go well beyond the borders of Ukraine.

Vince Nigro/MS